By Warren L. Nelson
For the sixth time in the history of the Islamic Republic, major anti-regime protests erupted December 28 — but this time the regime responded with unprecedented force, killing thousands in a few days and successfully convincing the people to stay home.
Information is often vague and uncertain because there is no leadership of the opposition. Most of what is known comes from videos posted on social media, but the regime shut down internet connectivity completely on the 12th day of the protests, January 8, the same day it decided to pull out all the stops and authorized troops to machinegun crowds of protesters. As a result, there is a shortage of factual information unlike during previous protests.
The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said the last protests it could verify were held the night of January 12, though it added that with the communications blackout there could have been some protests after that date, especially in small communities, that it would not have heard about.
This was the sixth outbreak of mass protests against the regime — the previous ones erupting in 1999, 2009, 2017, 2019 and 2022. They have been precipitated by different events — the closure of a Reformist daily in 1999, disbelief in the presidential election results announced in 2009, economic grievances in 2017, a tripling of gasoline prices in 2019 and opposition to the hejab laws in 2022.
The latest protest erupted in the Tehran Grand Bazaar December 28 over the economy. That was the day after the ever-declining rial hit a new low against the dollar. Ironically, the rial strengthened that first day of the protests and did not hit a new low until eight days later on January 4.
Here are the key points of the protests across Iran that lasted 16 days:
• The protests appear almost uniformly spontaneous with little organization or structure. There are no mass marches on assigned routes as in 1978. For the most part, residents simply gathered in neighborhoods, milled about and chanted.
• Initially there was surprisingly little violence on the part of the protesters. There were some reports of traditional attacks on banks, police stations, trash bins and city halls, but far fewer than in past protests. That changed when the regime brought out automatic weapons on January 8.
• The chants heard in videos posted online were overwhelmingly political, directly targeting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and calling for the end of the Islamic Republic.
• The regime’s response was swift and severe. After shutting down the internet nationwide, security forces used machineguns and live ammunition to disperse crowds.
• Casualty numbers remain unclear due to the information blackout, but reports indicate thousands may have been killed within days.
The regime appears to have regained control of the streets — at least temporarily — but the grievances that brought millions into the streets remain unresolved.